Since April, there have been 64 sales of single family homes in the Beverly Center-Miracle Mile area, and 90 YTD. At $ 491/SF List/$ 463/SF Sold, down about 22% from the 2006 peak of $590/SF Sold.  Current SFR inventory is at 6.5 months using  data for the last 5 months, and 7.4 months YTD.

Condos: 20 sales since April, 36 YTD., $465/SF List/$433/SF Sold, down about 17% from the 2006 peak of $523/SF Sold.  Condo inventory is  at 12  months since April and 10.6 months YTD. While the SFR market has picked up, suggesting a “normal” market of about 6-7 months, condo inventory has increased in the same period. Please note these numbers do not include pocket listings, or bank owned property not actively listed.

Since April, there have been 62 sales this season of single family homes in the Hancock Park-Wilshire area. That is about 13.7 per month, and with 170 active listings that puts inventory at 12.4 months supply- up from 8-9 months from the April-May period. The average $/sq.ft was $474 list/$436 sold- off about 22% from the 2006 peak of $ 564list/$556 sold.

There were 72 condo sales in the same period, or about 16 per month, with 167 active listings which translates to  inventory of 10.4 months supply. This number is also up from 8-9 months supply from April-May as well. So far, the average $/sq. ft. for condos is $352 list/$319 sold this season, down about 30% from the 2006 peak of $463 list/$455 sold.

Notice that not only are $/sq.ft numbers down, but also the spread between list and sold figures have increased. A shrinkage of this spread will be as telling as the inventory numbers in the future. If you are considering selling your property in this market, these numbers should be taken into consideration, especially with increasing inventory and homes currently selling for about 90% of what they are listed at.

This article  from  the Dr Housing Bubble Blog needs no expanation; I thought it to be quite appropriate reading on the eve of the  90 day California foreclosure moratorium that starts tomorrow. Great- while homeowners in California enjoy a temporary reprieve from losing their homes for the time being, what happens in September? Will this measure help stem the massive tide of foreclosures? or will it just make the coming wave of Alt A and Prime defaults that much stronger? It would be prudent to keep these facts in mind amidst all of the “happy talk” of a market bottom. While it may be true that  some of the less expensive areas of L.A. may offer some buying opportunities, it remains to be seen that the more expensive areas on the Westside are immune to “declining market” conditions seen just about everywhere else.

Interesting piece from the Business Standard on how real estate stocks appreciated much more then real estate itself during the height of the market from Jan 2007 to Jan 2008 . In light of the past/current debacle we find ourselves in, it probably couldn’t hurt to pay more attention to this particular group of stocks to gain some kind of perspective and not get caught up in the frenzy often associated with market tops.  I’m surprised that real estate futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are not more popular these days as these instruments can hedge portfolio risk, lock in home equity and otherwise offer a speculator way to take advantage of price trends in today’s real estate market.  For more info on real estate futures and options, please visit the CME page for real estate products here.

As if the last year was not tumultous enough. It’s Summer of 2009, with at least a few pundits who cover Wall Street  hinting that the worst of the recession is over, stocks are off recent lows, so we have reason for optimism, right? After all, we have weathered most of the subprime debacle, at least for the time being. But what about the prime mortgages that are currently defaulting  at a faster rate than the subprime loans did previously? Remember the 5-1 ARMs that were very popular  just a few years ago? well, there is going to be another wave of resets/recasts which could last until 2012. You can read more here 

Is this Option ARM-Ageddon?  more defaults, means more foreclosures, which increases an already bloated housing inventory we currently have on the Westside of Los Angeles. How much more can this market bear?

I would like to hear from those of you who have experience holding auctions, especially those of you in California. I am not talking about Foreclosure auctions, but rather the type where the homeowner still has equity in the house. With the current market climate of high inventory, auctions are beginning to look like a viable alternative to listing a property and waiting for it to sell.  What kind of fees can a Buyer and Seller expect in an auction situation? what are the requirements for both to participate? What about realtor referrals?  I am looking for someone to work with in The Los Angeles area, so if you or anyone you know may be interested,  I would like to hear from you.

If you have been following the Real Estate Market to any degree in the past 7 months, the sheer amount of information with headlines from “Mortgage Meltdown” to “168 Billion Economic Stimulus package” is positively mind-numbing. Moreover, when was the last time you heard a Realtor tell you it wasn’t a “good time to buy?” Specifically in California, where housing tends to cost a tad more than other areas, will raising conforming limits on loans help the market here ? maybe. The question I have is this: Since inventory here in Los Angeles County has basically doubled from last year’s levels, how long will it take to get levels down to more “normal” levels? At the moment, we have 12-18 months worth of unsold homes depending on your neighborhood. The reason I am asking is that I constantly hear radio commercials pronouncing “it’s a great time to buy” versus bubble-bloggers declaring the end of civilization as we know it. So am I really doing my job by telling my friends now is a good time to buy? of course. But do I also preface said statement by warning them prices could go lower? Definitely. It is true rates are the lowest in about 4 years, but with this proposed “Economic Stimulus Package” who really knows what will happen? Will the foreclosure situation get worse and add even more unsold property to the already ridiculous levels of inventory? or will it stabilize? Here is another question: As the stock market goes down after going up for the last six years, will that shift investment dollars into Real Estate?

I heard a great discussion about the state of the market recently, and wanted to post this here for all to see. This is especially important if you are selling, or thinking of selling your home. The point of said discussion was very simple; About 70% of homes currently for sale are overpriced, and the remaining  30% are priced correctly, and therefore fetch multiple offers. How do we know this? In the month of October alone, for the areas of West Hollywood. Miracle Mile-Beverly Center, Hollywood Hills , Hancock Park & Beverly Hills, 48% of listings expired , which means they are unsold. This doesn’t even count the hundreds of listings that were withdrawn from the market. So, chances are, the the 70/30 ratio probably isn’t that far off the mark. I realize that there is a debate on whether or not the current wave of Foreclosures and Short Sales will make it’s way over to the West Side or not. If it does happen, it can only increase inventory, which underscores the importance of a homeowner to sell at a price which reflects current market conditions. People who are listing homes at unreasonable prices are just compounding the problem at this point. We should all remember when gasoline was rationed in the 70’s and adopt a similar mindset to the current oversupply of homes for sale; if you really need to sell, have a realistic outlook about the value of your home. Attempting to justify a high selling price in this market just because you were offered a similar amount of money back in 2005 is like arguing with your Stock Broker that your stock used to be worth xx dollars/share. Markets are not static. They fluctuate on a daily basis.